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我们离诺贝尔奖有多远


2 0 1 0. 0 1 ( 上 旬 刊 )
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“中国需要一场真正的教育体制改革。 ”武汉大学原校长刘道玉在自己的网易博客中这样写。 他认为,人才成功

靠的是志趣、兴趣、信念、执著等。 中国科学家研究的不是自己的兴趣,而是任务,这是中国没有得到诺贝尔奖的重要原因。 前

Google 中国区总裁、现北京创新工场董事长兼首席执行官李开复在给中国学生和家长的公开信中坦诚地说 : “……毫无疑问,
许多现有问题要解决还需要经费、政策甚至思想的突破……” 国以才立,政以才治,业以才兴。 教育的根本任务就是培养人才。 怎样做才能培育出双肩可担国之未来的人才,是我国教 育必须跨过去的坎。 本期以中国与诺贝尔奖差距为话题展开,围绕人才培养、自主学习等话题精选了 部 分 我 国 高 校 教 育 实 践 中 的 优 秀 论 文 , 分成焦点、观点、热点、视点四栏,从中外视角对这一问题进行了探讨,以期引起读者及社会更深入的思考与讨论。

人物简介: David Pendlebury,汤森路透 “引文桂冠奖” (Citation Laureates 首席专家, ) 1983 年加入科学信息研究所(Institute for Scientific Information, ISI),即现在的汤森路透。 1987 年, 《科学家》 创办 (The Scientist)期刊的 在 研究栏目。两年后加入公司的研究服务部, 首席科学家 Henry Small 博士的领导下发布 , 了时事通讯 《科学 观 察》 直 到 2004 年 , Pendlebury 先生一直是该部门面向全球政府 机构、 大学、 公司和科学出版社的研究服务负 责人。

我们离诺贝尔奖有多远—— —2017-2025?
How Far Is Nobel Prize From China—— —2017- 2025? 特约记者 康艳丽 李倩倩
汤森路透 (Thomson R euters 的研究部门每年用引文分析的方法, ) 对诺贝尔奖颁奖的生理学、 医学、 物理、 化学和经济学 领域, 确定最有影响的研究人员授予其 “引文桂冠奖”预示其可能成为当年或未来的诺贝尔奖得主。从 2002 年到今, , 已有 19 位 “引文桂冠” 得主获得诺贝尔奖。 到底是巧合、 幸运, 还是引文分析法有其科学依据? 为什么中国一直没有获得诺贝尔奖? 带 着这些问题, 记者对汤森路透 “引文桂冠奖” 首席专家 David Pendlebury 进行了专访。 Reporter:Mr Pendlebury, would you please first tell us something about“Citation Analysis”as a brief introduction? (记者: Pendlebury 先生, 请您先简单地介绍一下, 什么是 “引 文分析法” ) ? Pendlebury:Citation analysis is a branch of bibliometrics, which concerns quantitative descriptions and analyses of the nature, growth, and use of literature of all types (it now includes information dissemination and use of information on the internet). Citation analysis examines the references (or footnotes) in publications to discover the network of communication among researchers. Citations may be likened to repayments of intellectual debts from one research to another. The analysis of citation counts, to people, papers, journals, institutions, and nations, can reveal which research producers have had the most influence on others. It should be noted that different fields have different average rates of citations and, of course, older papers have had more time to be cited than new ones, so it is important to use relative and weighted measures to place the citation counts, and therefore 1

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the measure of influence or performance, in context. (Pendlebury:引文分析法是文献计量学的一个分支, 它涉及 定量描述和对所有类型文献的性质、 发展以及使用 (现在也 包括信息传播以及在互联网上信息的使用 的分析。我们用 ) 引文分析法检查出版物中的引文 (或脚注) 以发现研究人 , 员之间的通讯网络。引文可以比作研究与研究之间的知识 文件、 刊物、 机构和国 产权债务的偿还。被引用的次数以人、 家计算,对此分析可以揭示引文的作者对他人在哪方面影 响最大。应当指出, 不同领域有着不同的引用率, 当然, 旧的 报纸会比新的在更多的时间被引用。所以, 使用相对加权措 施权衡被引用的次数以判断其在大环境中的影响力或表现 力尤为重要。 ) Reporter:How is it specifically applied? (记者: 引文分析法具体是如何操作的呢? ) Pendlebury: many ways. The chief use is in research perforIn mance evaluation, at all levels from that of an entire nation to that of a research group or individuals. The use of citation analysis can also be used to monitor the nature of scientific research itself, especially to spot emerging trends, new fields, and specifically important discoveries. Finally, as a window on the publishing and communication patterns of researchers, citation analysis offers the opportunity to understand structural aspects of research, such as the size and dynamics of a field, collaboration patterns, different “schools”of thought on a topic and how they interact, among many other topics. The pioneer of citation analysis is Eugene Garfield, who in 1955 in Science magazine described a citation index for science. Garfield foresaw the indexing of references in journal articles as a powerful way to enhance searching the literature, in other words, information retrieval. The citation links among papers allow a searcher to look forward in time for other relevant works from earlier works known to a researcher. Today, Thomson Reuters Web of Knowledge database offers cover- to- cover indexing of more than 11,000 internationally influential journals in the sciences, social sciences, and humanities and includes all the citations in the journal articles. The database extends back to 1900 for the sciences and social sciences and contains some 44,000,000 journal items and over 700,000,000 citation links and records. It is a powerful tool used by millions of researchers daily for information retrieval and by science analysts for data on research activity and performance. Thomson Reuters aims to make its database the “gold standard”for information retrieval and analysis, including citation analysis. 2

2 0 1 0. 0 1 ( 上 旬 刊 ) (Pendlebury:有很多种方法, 主要使用的是适用于从整个国家 到一个研究小组或个人各个层次的性能评价研究。引文分析 法可以用来监测科学研究, 特别用来探明新趋势、 新领域和 特别重要的发现。最后, 作为出版业的窗口和研究人员的沟 通模式, 引文分析法提供了机会以了解研究结构问题, 如一 个领域的规模和动态、 合作模式、 同一个主题不同的 “学派” 以 及它们之间在其他的主题中是如何相互影响的。 引文分析法的先驱是尤金加菲尔德, 1955 年 《科学》 杂 志刊登了其对科学引文索引的描述。加菲尔德预见到期刊 杂志引文索引将作为一种强有力的方式加强文献检索, 即 信息检索。论文的引文链接让搜索者及时地从早期研究人 员的著作中寻找到有关的作品。目前, 汤森路透知识网数据 库提供了超过 11,000 种国际上有影响力的科学、 社会科学、 人文学科期刊的全部索引,包括期刊文章中所有引文的索 引。该数据库可追溯到 1900 年的科学和社会科学期刊, 包 括 44,000,000 个期刊名目和超过 7.0 亿个引文链接和记录。 这是一个强有力的工具, 每天, 数以百万计的研究人员利用 信息检索对研究活动和性能数据进行科学的分析。汤森路 透的目标是使数据库成为信息检索和分析包括引文分析的 “黄金标准” ) 。 Reporter:What is the selection process of Nobel Prize? (记者: 诺贝尔奖的评奖过程是如何进行的? ) Pendlebury: Nobel Prize committees review information on The nominated scientists. Only the Nobel Foundation and its committee members, past Nobel Prize winners, and experts worldwide whom the Nobel Foundation calls upon can nominate individuals for a Nobel Prize. Unsolicited nominations are not accepted. The committees for each Prize meet throughout the year and come to their conclusion based on their experience and judgment. To my knowledge, citation analysis is not a part of their considerations. It is important to note that a Nobel Prize can be awarded to a maximum of three persons only. (Pendlebury:诺贝尔奖评审委员会对被提名的科学家的情况 进行审查。只有诺贝尔基金会及其委员会委员、 曾经的诺贝 尔奖得主、世界范围内获得诺贝尔基金会邀请的专家可以 提名。 不请自来的提名是不被接受的。 每个诺贝尔奖项的委 员会经全年开会讨论并根据经验和判断得出结论。据我所 知,引文分析法不是他们考虑的一部分。务必需要注意的 是, 一项诺贝尔奖最多只授予 3 个人。 ) Reporter:What (do you think) is the competition behind

that? The comprehensive strength of a country or just technology? (记者: 诺贝尔奖背后的竞争是什么?是一国的综合实力还

2 0 1 0. 0 1 ( 上 旬 刊 ) 是科技实力? ) Pendlebury: is my belief that the Nobel Prize committees judge It a scientist’ work strictly on its merits, without consideration of s the national origin of the researchers or where they performed their work. That being said, I would suggest that given the nature of the nomination process being based in a European nation and relying on nominations of past Nobel Prize winners who have in the main been from Europe or North America probably fewer Asian researchers have been considered than will be considered in the future, given the increasingly global nature of where world- class research is being performed. (Pendlebury: 我相信, 诺贝尔评审委员会严格按照它的价值 判断科学家的工作,而不会考虑到研究人员的国家或者是 作品在哪里完成。话虽如此, 鉴于提名过程的本质—— —总部 设在欧洲国家和提名依赖于主力为来自欧洲或北美的曾经 的诺贝尔奖得主—— —鉴于世界一流的研究正日益全球化, 未来将有多于目前的亚洲研究人员被考虑在内。 ) Reporter:Is Nobel Prize a good standard for measuring a country's scientific and technological level? (记者: 诺贝尔奖是评价一个国家科技水平的良好指标吗? ) Pendlebury: Probably not. I think there are better, more current indicators of a nation’ scientific and technological strengths. s Thomson Reuters produces such current indicators of research performance in its Essential Science Indicators database, which is a component of the Web of Knowledge database. One should recognize, first, that the Nobel Prize is typically awarded for research performed decades before the prize is given, so it represents a lagging indicator of research achievement. Second, there a re so indicator. few Nobel Prizes given out that I would call it a “thin” Third, the population of researchers varies greatly by nation, so some have suggested the calculation of Nobel Prizes per capita is better than simply counting Nobel Prizes (Switzerland seems to rank first by the per capita measure). Lastly, which nation should get credit for a Nobel Prize? Consider one of this year’ Nobel s Prize winners in Chemistry, Venkatraman Ramakrishnan: he was born in India, has US citizenship, but works in England. Which nation can claim his Prize as its own? (Pendlebury: 也许不是。 我认为有更好的、 更为大众所接受的 指标衡量一个国家的科技实力。汤森路透生产的知识网数 据库的组件—— —基本科学指标数据库就是这么一个研究性 能现行指标。人们应该认识到, 首先, 诺贝尔奖通常授予那 些在获奖前已经进行了数十年的研究。因此, 诺贝尔奖是一 个带有研究成果滞后性的指标。第二, 诺贝尔奖只颁发给极

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少数人, 我将它称作是 “单薄” 的指标。第三, 研究人员所在 国家的人口差别很大, 所以, 某些人建议诺贝尔奖采用人均 计数法比单纯计算诺贝尔奖要好 (采用人均计数法瑞士似 乎排名第一 。最后, ) 哪个国家应该获得诺贝尔奖的荣誉呢? 考虑到 2009 年的诺贝尔化学奖得主 Venkatraman Ramakr他出生在印度, 取得美国国籍, 但在英国工作。哪个 ishnan, 国家可以声称他获得的诺贝尔奖是属于它的呢? ) Reporter:How far do you think that China should go to reach the point? (记者: 诺贝尔奖离中国到底有多远? ) Pendlebury: close to 30 years of experience in analyzing pubIn lication and citation data, I have never witnessed a growth in publications such as China has produced in the last two decades. Moreover, in the last decade citation impact (citations per paper) has increased, which is remarkable since it indicates an improvement in influence at the same time that output has risen so fast. It is more typical to see a per paper decline in influence during such periods of rapid growth in publication output. Also, in recent years, we are witnessing an increase in very highly cited papers from China, those that rank in the top 1% by citations for their year of publication and field. So, at the very top end, in terms of world- class research papers, we observe an increase, more and more when one looks at papers of very recent vintage. All of this says that China seems to be shifting somewhat from an emphasis on output to a focus on high- quality, world- class research. It is at such a point that Nobel- class research begins to be produced. (Pendlebury: 在我近 30 年的分析出版和引用数据的经验里, 我从没有见过像中国出版业在过去 20 年里那样的增长速 在过去十年里, 引文影响 (每篇论文的引用) 也有 度。而且, 所增加, 显而易见, 它表明论文影响力的改善以及产量的快 速增长。在出版过程中更为典型的是, 在论文数量快速增长 的时期, 单篇论文的影响力却在下降。此外, 近年来, 我们正 目睹中国论文引用率的高速增长,那些被引用的论文根据 因此, 在最顶尖的、 世界一流 出版物年份和领域排名前 1%。 的研究论文中, 在人们着眼于新近经典论文的同时, 我们观 察到了越来越多的增长。所有这一切都表明, 中国似乎在一 定程度上从强调论文数量转移到注重高品质、世界一流水 平的研究。正是基于这样一个观点, 我们才认为这是中国诺 贝尔级别研究的开始。 ) Reporter:When do you thin k that China could possibly get the Nobel Prize?What are the most possible areas to win the NP? 3

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(记者: 中国最有可能在什么时间获得诺贝尔奖?最有可能 在哪些领域内呢? ) Pendlebury: light of what I just mentioned, and on the basis of In other analyses I have done, I would suggest we might see the first “home- grown” Nobel Prize winner from China somewhere around 2017- 2025. I believe it would be a Nobel Prize in s Physics or Chemistry, since China’ strength currently in terms of highly cited papers is in the physical sciences rather than the biomedical sciences. perhaps recognizing work in materials science, for which either Prize might be appropriate. (Pendlebury: 在我刚才提到的情况下, 以及在我作的其他分 “本土” 诺贝尔奖得主会在 析的基础上, 我认为, 中国第一个 2017 至 2025 年间产生。我相信将会是在物理或化学领域, 因为中国被高度引用的论文领域是物理科学,而不是生物 医学科学, 在材料科学领域获奖也是有可能的。 ) Reporter:So,can you tell me how you calculate the time? (记者: 这个时间是如何推算的? ) Pendlebury: course, it is no more than intuition, a guess. But I Of am thinking of the typical time delay between a landmark discovery and the awarding of the Nobel Prize, so it might take a decade or a decade and a half, at a minimum. (Pendlebury: 当然, 这只不过是直觉,是猜测。但我想一项具 有里程碑意义的发现和被授予诺贝尔奖之间有特有的时间 最低限度, 这可能需要十年或十年半。 ) 延迟。所以, Reporter:Why do you think it is in these areas? (记者: 为什么会是这些领域呢?) Pendlebury: China’ strength currently in terms of highly cited s papers is, as mentioned, in the physical sciences rather than the biomedical sciences. China now produces some 12% of highly cited papers worldwide in materials science. (Pendlebury: 如前所述, 目前, 中国被高度引用的论文领域是 中国出版的材料科学论 物理科学, 而不是医学科学。现在, 文在全世界范围内的引用率高达 12%。 ) Reporter:What is the main reason that China hasn't gotten one so far? (记者: 到目前为止, 中国一直没有获得诺贝尔奖的主要原 因是什么呢? ) Pendlebury: Your question does not really permit a comprehensive explanation, but I will try to explain it simply from the perspective of China’ research output and impact. China is an ans cient nation, and can count many significant scientific discoveries and inventions over its long history. But in modern terms, it is a young nation in terms of its contributions to contemporary science 4

2 0 1 0. 0 1 ( 上 旬 刊 ) and technology. The growth in Chinese scientific publications in internationally influential journals over the last three decades has, as I mentioned, been no less than spectacular, from under 1% of the world’ journal articles in the early 1980s to almost 10% tos day. China is now second in the world in its production of scientific articles in the international influential journals indexed by Thomson Reuters (the United States in first). Its output in this decade has surpassed that of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Japan, Canada, and Italy, among the G7 nations. Thus, China has strongly taken its place on the world stage in terms of contributions to international scientific research. Also, as mentioned, the average rate of citations to Chinese scientific articles has increased in the last decade. Finally, we have noted a marked increase in China’ production of highly cited papers. China now s produces more of these papers than does Japan, for example. So, to answer your question, China was not previously producing science in quantity or quality that would garner a Nobel Prize, however, in the last two decades all that has changed. I imagine, in future years, we are as likely to see Nobel Prize winners from Asian nations, including China, as from North America or Europe. (Pendlebury: 您的问题并不允许我作一个真正全面的解释, 但 我会尝试从中国研究成果数量和影响的角度来简单地解释 在其漫长的历史中有许 这个问题。中国是一个古老的民族, 多重要的科学发现和发明。但在现代条件下, 在当代科学和 技术方面的贡献方面, 中国还是一个年轻的国家。正如我刚 才所说, 在过去 30 年里, 中国科研人员在国际有影响力的刊 物上发表文章数量的增长速度可以用壮观来形容,从 20 世 纪 80 年代初低于 1%增长到如今的将近 10%。根据汤森路 透的编入索引资料显示, 在世界范围内, 目前中国在国际有 影响力的期刊发表的科学文章数量是世界第二 (美国是第 一 。在过去 10 年里, ) 中国论文的总量已经超过英国、 德国、 法国、 日本、 加拿大、 意大利等 7 国集团。因此, 中国在国际 科学研究贡献方面已经取得了一定的地位。此外,如前所 述, 在过去十年, 中国科学论文的平均引用率也有所增加。 最后, 我们注意到, 中国被高度引用的论文数量显著提高。 例如中国现在此类论文的数量已经超过了日本。) 因此, 针对你的问题, 中国以前在论文发表的数量和质 量上,都没有可以获得诺贝尔奖的成果。然而,在过去 20 年, 一切都改变了。我相信, 在未来几年里, 就像北美或欧洲 一样, 我们也将会看见来自亚洲国家的诺贝尔奖得主, 包括 中国。 Reporter:What kind of person could get the Nobel Prize?

2 0 1 0. 0 1 ( 上 旬 刊 ) (记者: 什么样的人才能获得诺贝尔奖? ) Pendlebury: definition one can say they are exceptional. If one By reads the biographies of Nobel Prize winners, one gains the impression that they are not only intelligent, which goes without saying, but creative, independent, and focused. They do not aim for incremental advances in knowledge. They contribute what the historian of science Thomas Kuhn calls “revolutionary science” in his The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962). (Pendlebury: 就其本身而言, 可以说他们是例外。 如果你读过 诺贝尔奖获奖者的传记, 你就能了解到, 这些诺贝尔奖的得 独立且专 主不仅聪明, 当然这也无须多言, 也富有创造力、 他们的目标并不是增长自己的知识量。 他们的贡献有如 注。 科学历史学家托马斯库恩在 1962 年的 《科学革命结构》 中 “科学革命。 ) 所说的 Reporter:What conditions are required? (记者: 需要具备哪些条件呢? ) Pendlebury: win a Nobel Prize, researchers need to be able to To work in frontier areas at world- class levels. The enormous investments that the Chinese government has made and continues to make in terms of investments in research indicate that Chinese researchers can and will contribute Nobel- class research. There is no national monopoly on brain- power and no geographic barriers to achievement in science in our increasingly global environment. China, by its sheer size in population of scientists, has the ability to produce Nobel winners. No one really knows where these individuals of exceptional talent and creativity will spring s forth, but when they do, a nation’ policymakers and funders can provide dedicated resources to ensure their performance can be maximized. Citation analysis can play an important role in recognizing early on who these exceptional scientists are. My understanding is that the Chinese policymakers and funders at the Ministry of Science and Technology understand all of this and are implementing just such a policy of supporting elite scientists. (Pendlebury: 要赢得诺贝尔奖, 研究人员必须能够在世界一 流水平的尖端领域工作。中国政府已经做出了巨大的投入 并将继续加大投入, 这些都表明, 中国研究人员可以也将会 达到诺贝尔奖级别的研究水平。在日益全球化的环境下, 没 有一个国家可以垄断科学工作者,地理上的障碍不能阻隔 科学成就。中国纯粹的科学家规模, 已经有能力产生诺贝尔 奖得主。没有人真正知道那些拥有卓越才能和创造力的人 在哪里, 但是, 当他们开始做的时候, 一个国家的政策制定 者和资助者可以提供专门的资源以确保其性能最大化。引 文分析法在早期识别这些杰出的科学家的时候发挥重要作

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并正在执行这一政策以支持杰出科学家。 )

焦点

用。我的理解是中国科技部的决策者和资助者明白这一切,

Reporter:Then,in what way that China could win the NP? (记者: 中国如何走向诺贝尔奖? ) Pendlebury: is important that scientists and policymakers put It all their focus on producing high quality, world- class research. Both citations and prizes, such as the Nobel Prize, will surely follow. As understandable as the desire for a Nobel Prize is for a nation, one should not put the cart before the horse. China, through its large investments in research and recent emphasis on high quality research, is on the right path to winning a Nobel Prize, but the goal is first and foremost finding out new things about our world. When that is achieved, the Nobel committee will certainly notice. (Pendlebury: 科学家和政策制定者注重高品质、 世界一流的研 比如诺贝尔奖, 都会以此为准 究是相当重要的。引文和奖项, 则。我们可以理解一个民族对诺贝尔奖的渴望, 但是不能本 末倒置。中国有大量科研投入并强调高质量的研究, 走在通 往诺贝尔奖的正确的道路上, 但我们的首要目标是发现新事 诺贝尔委员会一定也会注意到。 ) 物。当做到这一点时, Reporter:How to view the Nobel Prize? (记者: 您认为应该如何看待诺贝尔奖? ) Pendlebury: a great honor for the scientist who wins and for As the institution and nation that nurtured and supported the scientist’ work. Also, the Nobel Prizes, when announced each year, s have, in my opinion, an important role to play in educating the world about science and important discoveries. Each year, in October, for a brief time, the public turns its attention to research and learns something of great work in frontier areas that have importantly expanded human knowledge. Perhaps - - just perhaps - - these announcements might inspire younger people to consider a career in science, and I think that can be seen a very positive effect of the Nobel Prizes. (Pendlebury: 对于获得诺贝尔奖的科学家以及培育科学家并 支持其工作的机构和国家而言,诺贝尔奖是一项巨大的荣 誉。此外, 在我看来, 每年宣布的时候, 诺贝尔奖在科学与世 界重要发现的教育中都发挥着重要作用。每年 10 月, 公众 短时期内将注意力转移于在尖端领域做着重要的扩展人类 知识的研究和学习上。也许—— —只是也许—— —这些消息可 能激励年轻人考虑科学生涯,我认为这个可以看作是诺贝 尔奖的积极影响。 ) Reporter:Thank you for the interview! (记者: 谢谢您接受我们的采访! ) 5


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