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美国页岩气和密致油开发的现状和展望sieminski


Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S.

for The Energy Council March 09, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

U.S. Energ

y Information Administration

Independent Statistics & Analysis

www.eia.gov

EIA’s mission and main functions
Independent Statistical and Analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy
– EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. – By law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government

[EIA] …is the gold standard for energy data around the world, and the accessibility of it is so much greater than other places – Dan Yergin,

Platts Inside Energy

Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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U.S. Shale Gas

Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can also have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production
million cubic feet per year 2,000 Haynesville Eagle Ford 1,500 Woodford Marcellus Fayetteville 1,000 0% 0 5 10 15 20 50% 100% Cumulative production = EUR

500

0 0 1 5 10 15 20
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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For example: Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin

Source: DrillingInfo history through August 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 forecast Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years
shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 Rest of US Bakken (ND) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) Haynesville (LA and TX) Woodford (OK) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Antrim (MI, IN, and OH)

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of January 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play. Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040
U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet 35 30 25 20 15 Non-associated offshore 10 5 0 1990 Coalbed methane Associated with oil Non-associated onshore 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Tight gas Alaska Shale gas History 2011 Projections

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed, with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth
U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35 30 25 20 15 33% 10 3% 13% 5 19% 0 2005 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

History

Projections *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel. Electric 32% power 31% 33% 2% 6% Industrial*

Gas to liquids Transportation**

12% Commercial 14% Residential

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Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come?
U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections

3.0 2.5 2.0

28% Gas to liquids

1.5
1% Freight 38% trucks Buses Light-duty vehicles 3% 95% Pipeline fuel 3% 1% 31%

1.0 0.5 0.0 1995

1%

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013 9

Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case
U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet 6 5 4 3 2 1 Alaska LNG exports 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Exports to Canada Lower 48 LNG exports

Exports to Mexico

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020
U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Net imports 0 -5 1990 Domestic supply Consumption History 2011 Projections

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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U.S. Tight Oil

Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years
tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Eagle Ford Bakken Granite Wash Bonespring Monterey Woodford Niobrara-Codell Spraberry Austin Chalk

Source: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through October 2012. Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019
U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day 8 History 2011 Projections STEO Feb. 2013 U.S. crude oil projection

6 Tight oil

4 Other lower 48 onshore 2 Lower 48 offshore Alaska 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release and Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades
annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 – 2011 million barrels per day 4 3 2 1 0 -1 net exports -2 imports -3 -4 1949 exports

net product exporter

1955

1961

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

2003

2009

Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand
U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day 25 History 2005 2011 Projections

20 Consumption 15 Net imports 10 37%

60%

45%

Domestic supply

5

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards
light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day 10 AEO2012 8 AEO2013 6

4

2

0 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Global tight oil production comparisons
IEO2013 DRAFT
12 million barrels per day 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 Australia Russia Mexico United States China Argentina Canada

BP Energy Outlook 2030

2010

2020

2030

Source: Preliminary International Energy Outlook 2013, BP Energy Outlook 2030 Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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EIA Data & the Importance of Cooperation with the States

Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC)
? The Ground Water Protection Council (GWPC) consists of state ground water regulatory agencies (spun out of the IOGCC) ? The purpose is to promote and ensure the use of best management practices and fair but effective laws regarding comprehensive ground water protection ? FracFocus Website – FracFocus is the national hydraulic fracturing chemical registry and is managed by the GWPC and Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (IOGCC)

Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Risked Based Data Management System (RBDMS)
? More than 22 regulatory agencies use the RBDMS data management system for tracking oil, gas, injection well and water protection activities ? Since 1992, development of RBDMS software underwritten through grants from the DOE. Funding has also been provided by state agencies including in-kind services ? Provides access to data for well history, tracking ownership, bonding, permitting, location, construction, inspection, production, and plugging/ restoration, and compliance ? RBDMS development is directed by the Technical Committee, a users’ group whose participation is drawn from multiple states
Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013 21

Oil and gas wells drilled in 2012 and RBDMS partners

Currently talking to TX, CA, LA, and WV
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Objectives of EIA-GWPC partnership
? Increase public availability of timely, accurate, and comprehensive U.S. oil and gas production data ? Continually strive to meet emerging data needs such as current need for shale production data ? Provide timely analyses of oil and gas production trends through geospatial analysis ? Collaborate with RBDMS partners to develop tailored data systems

Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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EIA – GWPC/RBDMS Working Together to Improve Oil/Gas Data Availability and Quality
? Phase 1: Central data repository consisting of the latest available data from each RBDMS state
– pilot project, proof of concept for 4 states underway now – future expansion to all 22 states – data not as timely as EIA-914 expansion but will be used for EIA-914 QA

? Phase 2: Improved data collection
– establish common/standard data definitions/translation across states – improve QA processes – expand number of states – provide more timely analyses of oil/gas production using geospatial analysis and other GWPC/RBDMS data

Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Annual natural gas well starts and natural gas production in Pennsylvania
wells started 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Horizontal Wells Non-Horizontal Wells Gas Production billion cubic feet per day 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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North Dakota’s oil/gas information model
? ND Dept of Mineral Resources provides timely, complete and reliable oil and gas data and information ? Data collection – streamlined and automated
– electronic only – advanced edit procedures applied – collection at multiple points provides checks and balances and ensures consistency – enforcement provides for timely responses from respondents

? Data reporting – timely and accurate
– monthly data published 45 days after end of the month – few/minor revisions to data – public accessibility: comprehensive data posted on internet site – continuous process and reporting improvement expand the public’s understanding of oil/gas developments in the state – interactive GIS map server available to public with well level and field level data

Adam Sieminski, Energy Council March 09, 2013

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Why EIA matters to you
? Data from all states in one location: comparisons/rankings/maps ? Data-mining to routine monthly data retrievals ? Context and perspective: short and longer term outlooks ? Webinars, workshops, conferences ? Energy Explained and Energy Kids My Challenge as Administrator: Improving the quality, timeliness and accessibility of EIA information – data, analysis and outlooks Building on data information management systems like RBDMS could be a way for all of us to benefit
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For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual

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