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Baked Goods in Hong Kong - China


Baked Goods - Hong Kong, China

Euromonitor International : Country Sector Briefing September 2010

Baked Goods

Hong Kong, China

List of Contents and Tables
Headlines ................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Competitive Landscape .......................................................................................................................................... 1 Prospects .................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Category Data ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 Table 1 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2005-2010 .................................................. 2 Table 2 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2005-2010 ...................................................... 3 Table 3 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010 ................................. 3 Table 4 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010 .................................... 4 Table 5 Packaged/Industrial Bread by Type: % Value Breakdown 2005-2010 .............................. 4 Table 6 Packaged/Industrial Cakes: Single Portion vs Multi-pack % Breakdown by Type 2005-2010 ................................................................................................................ 4 Table 7 Baked Goods Company Shares 2005-2009 ....................................................................... 4 Table 8 Baked Goods Brand Shares 2006-2009 ............................................................................. 5 Table 9 Sales of Baked Goods by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010 ............................ 5 Table 10 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2010-2015 .................................... 6 Table 11 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2010-2015 ....................................... 6 Table 12 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015 ................... 6 Table 13 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015 ...................... 7

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Baked Goods

Hong Kong, China

BAKED GOODS IN HONG KONG, CHINA
HEADLINES
? ? ? ? ? ? Baked goods stands at HK$2.8 billion representing a current value terms increase of 3% in 2010 The continued economic uncertainty results in consumers becoming more price-conscious Unpackaged/artisanal cakes niche registers highest value growth of 4% in 2010 Unit prices experience insignificant changes in 2010 as manufacturers absorb additional costs amid poor economic climate The Garden Co Ltd remains sales leader with 48% value share in 2009 Baked goods projected to post constant value CAGR of 1% over forecast period

TRENDS
? 2010 has seen a slow recovery of the economy from the global recession. Coupled with the continued economic uncertainty, consumers have become smarter in the way they shop and seek out value wherever they can. This has resulted in intensified price competition, where baked goods manufacturers offer their products at reduced prices to appeal to more price-sensitive customers. Volume growth in 2010 is expected to underperform compared with 2009. During 2009, due to the poor economic climate, consumers ate at home more to reduce expenditure, boosting sales of baked goods. However in 2010, as the economy improves, consumers are eating out more. The fastest growth is expected in unpackaged/artisanal cakes with a current value terms increase of 4% in 2010. Unpackaged/artisanal cakes mainly consist of multi-portion cakes such as chocolate cake and fruit cake, which are purchased to be divided into portions. This is cheaper than buying single-portion cakes and perceived as value for money by many price-conscious customers. Unit prices for baked goods experienced insignificant changes in 2010. Despite food commodity prices rising at a moderate rate over the review period, retailers and manufacturers continue to offer their products at attractive prices by absorbing the additional costs and reducing their margins in order to maintain consumer demand. Packaged/industrial baked goods are safer and less vulnerable to contamination and have a longer shelf life, whereas unpackaged/artisanal products offer freshness and a wider variety. There is no apparent cannibalisation of sales between the two niches, as manufacturers of packaged/industrial baked goods focus on bread while unpackaged/artisanal players focus on cakes and pastries. White bread continues to be the most popular type of packaged/industrial bread with a 69% value share in 2010. Wheatmeal bread is the next preferred choice among consumers with a value share of 11% in 2009, and is gaining share due to the growing health and wellness trend. Wheatmeal bread contains extra fibre, nutrients and vitamins than white bread, and is perceived by many as a healthier choice. Multi-portion cakes remain the more common type of packaged/industrial cakes with a 66% value share in 2010, but demand for single-portion cakes is on the rise. Single-portion cakes provide convenience, especially to busy working professionals, as these cakes are usually consumed on-the-go.

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COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
? The Garden Co Ltd is the sales leader with a value share of 48% in 2009. The company is Hong Kong’s leading manufacturer of packaged bread and baked goods, and has a history of over 80 years. The brand is familiar to almost everyone in the country and is the preferred choice of many consumers when it comes to baked goods. The greatest increase in value share was experienced by The Garden Co Ltd with a rise of almost three percentage points in 2009. The company has been extending its influence in the baked goods category at the

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Baked Goods

Hong Kong, China

expense of its rivals. 2007 saw the exit of Four Seas Mercantile Holding Ltd, and Dan Cake Bakery Co Ltd was next in 2009. Coupled with its well-established brand name, The Garden Co Ltd thus gained share in 2009. ? A successful company strategy that has worked in 2009 and 2010 involves frequent launches of promotional items together with price discounting. Reduced prices appeal to price-sensitive customers and by having promotions frequently, these promotional items entice them into spending, and manufacturers are able to earn through economies of scale due to higher volume sales. Hong Kong Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd is one player that has adopted such a strategy and achieved success, as evident in the increase in value share in 2009. Domestic brands outperformed international brands as The Garden Co Ltd, a domestic player, accounted for close to half of total value sales in 2009. The leading international player, Hong Kong Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd, held a value share of just under 2% in 2009, as Hong Kong consumers are more accustomed to local flavours and prefer domestic products which provide a sense of familiarity in taste. Hong Kong Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd is constantly coming up with new products to increase its value share in baked goods. Two new products released by the company in 2009/2010 are the Chocolate Tart Cup and The Cube, which is offered in mustard and chocolate flavours. Frequent in-store promotions were held by companies to retain and attract new customers. One example is Hong Kong Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd, which offers its bread at lower prices through the monthly white bread selection campaign. Furthermore, the company has come up with the Yamazaki membership card, with which customers can purchase bread at a 15% discount. Private label products continue to be popular as the price sensitivity of customers rises over the review period. These products, which are deemed attractive, are offered at lower prices and usually compete in the economy and standard segments. Premium products are targeting a niche consumer base of customers who are less particular regarding prices and willing to pay for higher quality.

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PROSPECTS
? The continued economic uncertainty after a slow recovery from the global recession is predicted to result in the price sensitivity of customers persisting over the forecast period. Consumers continue to shop smarter and look out for products that offer value for money. This spells bad news for baked goods as manufacturers continue to offer their products at lower prices to appeal to budget-conscious customers, resulting in limited value growth. Volume growth for baked goods will slow over the forecast period due to rising competition from other breakfast substitutes such as breakfast cereals. A potential threat to growth is the mandatory nutrition labelling that came into force on 1 July 2010. This measure was implemented by the government due to repeated food crises in China, which have heightened concerns regarding food safety standards. The mandatory labelling could result in a rise in production costs as manufacturers comply with this new regulation. This could be detrimental to smaller companies with limited financial capacity, which in turn poses a threat to the growth of baked goods. Packaged/industrial bread is expected to be the better performer and drive value sales for baked goods. Bread remains an integral part of the average diet in Hong Kong, and is largely consumed in the morning with coffee or tea. Furthermore, the hectic working lives of professionals in Hong Kong have fuelled demand for sandwiches as convenient food solutions. This has in turn resulted in the growth of bread, particularly packaged/industrial bread, which has a longer shelf life and is sold at affordable prices. Current unit prices are predicted to increase over the forecast period due to rising material costs. New product offerings, particularly in bread, are expected to be prevalent over the forecast period to satisfy consumers seeking novelty.

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CATEGORY DATA
Table 1 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2005-2010

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Baked Goods

Hong Kong, China

tonnes 2005 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2006 40,423.6 36,250.0 4,173.6 16,027.5 3,789.0 12,238.5 5,628.7 1,804.2 3,824.5 62,079.7

2007 40,908.8 36,610.0 4,298.8 16,546.8 3,880.0 12,666.8 5,756.7 1,836.7 3,920.1 63,212.3

2008 41,471.5 37,160.0 4,311.5 17,344.9 3,988.6 13,356.3 5,922.5 1,884.9 4,037.6 64,738.9

2009 43,973.1 39,575.4 4,397.7 17,961.2 4,070.7 13,890.6 6,167.5 1,988.6 4,178.9 68,101.8

2010 46,259.7 41,752.0 4,507.6 18,520.7 4,143.9 14,376.7 6,331.6 2,048.2 4,283.4 71,111.9

38,703.0 34,690.0 4,013.0 15,475.2 3,707.5 11,767.8 5,518.3 1,768.8 3,749.5 59,696.6

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 2 HK$ million

Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2005-2010

2005 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2006 1,126.0 942.1 183.9 905.1 299.1 606.1 249.7 79.9 169.8 2,280.8

2007 1,154.7 965.6 189.1 935.6 306.6 629.1 256.3 81.5 174.9 2,346.7

2008 1,262.6 1,062.2 200.4 993.5 320.3 673.1 276.1 86.4 189.7 2,532.1

2009 1,355.3 1,141.8 213.4 1,035.1 328.4 706.8 298.8 92.0 206.8 2,689.2

2010 1,395.9 1,176.1 219.8 1,070.0 334.9 735.1 307.3 94.3 213.0 2,773.2

1,101.3 923.6 177.7 878.8 293.2 585.6 246.0 78.7 167.3 2,226.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 3 % volume growth

Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010

2009/10 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries 5.2 5.5 2.5 3.1 1.8 3.5 2.7

2005-10 CAGR 3.6 3.8 2.4 3.7 2.3 4.1 2.8

2005/10 TOTAL 19.5 20.4 12.3 19.7 11.8 22.2 14.7

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Baked Goods

Hong Kong, China

- Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

3.0 2.5 4.4

3.0 2.7 3.6

15.8 14.2 19.1

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 4

Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010

% current value growth 2009/10 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2005-10 CAGR 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.0 2.7 4.7 4.6 3.7 5.0 4.5

2005/10 TOTAL 26.8 27.3 23.7 21.8 14.2 25.5 24.9 19.8 27.3 24.6

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.4 2.0 4.0 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.1

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 5 % retail value rsp

Packaged/Industrial Bread by Type: % Value Breakdown 2005-2010

2005 Wheatmeal White Others Total
Source:

2006 9.0 73.0 18.0 100.0

2007 9.0 70.0 21.0 100.0

2008 9.5 70.0 20.5 100.0

2009 10.0 70.0 20.0 100.0

2010 11.0 69.0 20.0 100.0

8.0 75.0 17.0 100.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 6

Packaged/Industrial Cakes: Single Portion vs Multi-pack % Breakdown by Type 20052010

% retail value rsp 2005 Single Portion Multi Portion Total
Source:

2006 31.0 69.0 100.0

2007 32.0 68.0 100.0

2008 33.0 67.0 100.0

2009 34.0 66.0 100.0

2010 34.2 65.8 100.0

30.0 70.0 100.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 7 % retail value rsp Company

Baked Goods Company Shares 2005-2009

2005 40.5 2.1 2.4

2006 42.2 2.1 2.4

2007 43.9 2.1 2.2

2008 45.1 2.1 2.1

2009 47.8 2.3 1.9

Garden Co Ltd, The AS Watson Group Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd

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Baked Goods

Hong Kong, China

Hong Kong Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd Marks & Spencer (Hong Kong) Ltd Dan Cake Bakery Co Ltd Four Seas Mercantile Holding Ltd Artisanal Others Total
Source:

2.2 0.5 0.5 3.0 41.8 7.0 100.0

1.6 0.4 0.3 1.7 42.1 7.3 100.0

1.6 0.3 0.3 42.3 7.2 100.0

1.6 0.3 0.3 42.0 6.5 100.0

1.8 0.2 41.9 4.0 100.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 8 % retail value rsp Brand Garden ParknShop 7-Eleven Yamazaki Marks & Spencer Dan Cake Harada Fu Four Seas Artisanal Others Total
Source:

Baked Goods Brand Shares 2006-2009

Company Garden Co Ltd, The AS Watson Group Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd Hong Kong Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd Marks & Spencer (Hong Kong) Ltd Dan Cake Bakery Co Ltd Four Seas Mercantile Holding Ltd Four Seas Mercantile Holding Ltd

2006 19.3 2.1 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.3 1.4 0.4 42.1 30.2 100.0

2007 20.1 2.1 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.3 42.3 31.1 100.0

2008 20.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.3 42.0 31.3 100.0

2009 21.2 2.3 1.9 1.8 0.2 41.9 30.7 100.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 9 % retail value rsp

Sales of Baked Goods by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010

2005 Store-Based Retailing Grocery Retailers Supermarkets/Hypermarkets Discounters Small Grocery Retailers Convenience Stores Independent Small Grocers Forecourt Retailers Other Grocery Retailers Non-Grocery Retailers Health and Beauty Retailers Other Non-Grocery Retailers Non-Store Retailing Vending Homeshopping Internet Retailing Direct Selling Total 100.0 100.0 45.0 22.0 19.0 3.0 33.0 100.0

2006 100.0 100.0 44.0 21.0 19.0 2.0 35.0 100.0

2007 100.0 100.0 44.0 21.0 19.0 2.0 35.0 100.0

2008 100.0 100.0 43.0 22.0 20.0 2.0 35.0 100.0

2009 100.0 100.0 43.0 22.0 20.0 2.0 35.0 100.0

2010 100.0 100.0 43.0 22.0 20.5 1.5 35.0 100.0

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Baked Goods

Hong Kong, China

Source:

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 10 tonnes

Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2010-2015

2010 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2011 47,579.8 43,004.6 4,575.2 19,018.3 4,210.2 14,808.0 6,468.5 2,099.4 4,369.1 73,066.6

2012 48,485.7 43,864.7 4,621.0 19,447.4 4,269.2 15,178.2 6,576.0 2,141.4 4,434.6 74,509.1

2013 49,180.6 44,522.7 4,658.0 19,832.6 4,320.4 15,512.1 6,652.5 2,173.5 4,478.9 75,665.7

2014 49,649.1 44,967.9 4,681.2 20,186.0 4,363.6 15,822.4 6,696.6 2,195.3 4,501.3 76,531.8

2015 49,883.3 45,192.7 4,690.6 20,458.3 4,398.5 16,059.7 6,716.6 2,206.3 4,510.3 77,058.2

46,259.7 41,752.0 4,507.6 18,520.7 4,143.9 14,376.7 6,331.6 2,048.2 4,283.4 71,111.9

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 11 HK$ million

Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2010-2015

2010 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2011 1,441.5 1,217.3 224.2 1,085.7 335.9 749.8 310.8 95.7 215.1 2,838.0

2012 1,475.3 1,247.7 227.6 1,094.0 335.3 758.8 312.7 96.5 216.2 2,881.9

2013 1,502.5 1,272.6 229.9 1,095.1 332.6 762.5 311.1 96.0 215.1 2,908.7

2014 1,523.4 1,291.7 231.7 1,086.7 327.9 758.7 306.9 95.0 211.9 2,917.0

2015 1,537.5 1,304.6 232.9 1,074.1 323.0 751.1 301.2 93.6 207.6 2,912.9

1,395.9 1,176.1 219.8 1,070.0 334.9 735.1 307.3 94.3 213.0 2,773.2

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 12 % volume growth

Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015

2014/15 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread 0.5 0.5

2010-15 CAGR 1.5 1.6

2010/15 TOTAL 7.8 8.2

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Baked Goods

Hong Kong, China

- Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

0.2 1.3 0.8 1.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7

0.8 2.0 1.2 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.6

4.1 10.5 6.1 11.7 6.1 7.7 5.3 8.4

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 13

Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

% constant value growth 2010-15 CAGR Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2010/15 TOTAL 10.1 10.9 5.9 0.4 -3.6 2.2 -2.0 -0.7 -2.5 5.0

2.0 2.1 1.2 0.1 -0.7 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 1.0

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

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